Two stories dominate the hour: US Election Day and a two-track Iran picture. Americans are voting on all 435 House seats ¹, with Democrats needing a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats against a 53-47 Republican Senate majority . Early-vote counts in the batch range from more than 54 million per the AP ² to more than 58 million in record turnout ³. Democrats are hedging their expectations: House Majority PAC calls a 225-to-230-seat majority the most realistic outcome ⁴. Republicans can lose up to three Senate seats and keep control, though most already consider North Carolina lost ⁵. Bitcoin is heading for a fifth straight weekly loss, with investors wary ahead of the midterms ⁶. On Iran, Washington is talking and striking at once. Officials call the strikes on Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz limited and defensive, a response to Iranian surface-to-air missile attacks rather than a return to war ⁷. The Wall Street Journal reported that Monday's strike was one of a series carried out secretly, and JD Vance said he and Trump feel pretty good about a negotiated settlement ⁸, as both sides weigh mediators' proposals ⁹. European gas surged as the US struck Qeshm ¹⁰, a day after deal hopes sent oil prices tumbling . Separately, Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone over the Mecca region amid escalation with the Houthis ¹¹ and pushed the AFC Asian Cup to late 2027 ¹², while Iran says its talks with Riyadh continue ¹³. The Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly fought over energy. Russia fired 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles overnight, mainly at energy infrastructure ¹⁴, and strikes knocked three DTEK thermal plants offline ¹⁵. Ukraine hit a major refinery in Yaroslavl ¹⁶, and Kazakhstan halted crude shipments to Russia on the Atyrau-Samara pipeline after a 2 November drone attack ¹⁷. A Russian strike on Komyshuvakha killed 29, with 48 missing ¹⁸. Diplomacy is moving in parallel: Zelenskyy is visiting Berlin ahead of next week's Abu Dhabi trilateral talks with Russia and the US ¹⁹, and the Kremlin is working on a Putin-Trump-Xi meeting at APEC in Shenzhen ²⁰. In markets, the AI trade is wobbling. European chip stocks fell after an Asian AI selloff ²¹, and Apple warned of unprecedented memory-chip price rises as it competes with datacentres for supply ²². Pimco's Emmanuel Roman put AI infrastructure investment at up to US$10 trillion over five years, close to the size of the US$12 trillion bond market ²³. Also notable: Trump will end South Africa's and Rwanda's AGOA trade benefits from January 1, 2027 ²⁴.